ICA to host a panel discussion on Future Market Share at the CRU World Copper Conference 2024 in Santiago, Chile—part of CESCO Week
Washington, D.C. – Research from the CRU Group, commissioned by the International Copper Association (ICA), reveals copper’s future market share will be defined by regional trends and the green energy transition, which are expected to help drive copper demand from 28.3 million tonnes (“Mt”) in 2020 to 40.9 Mt in 2040, with a 1.85 percent compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”).
On a regional level, CRU’s research forecasts that the strongest growth in copper demand is expected in India with a 7 percent CAGR, closely followed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (“ASEAN”) with a 6 percent CAGR. Both regions are currently observing high growth in the manufacturing and construction industries.
Specifically, India and ASEAN are expected to see the highest growth rates in wire rod demand. However, China is expected to remain the largest wire rod user. Juan Brihet, Senior Consultant at CRU, confirmed that “This demand, which is forecast to be primarily driven by the development of energy infrastructure, is expected to ensure that wire rod remains the largest segment of total copper demand at an estimated 25 Mt by 2040, constituting approximately 60 percent of total demand share over the long term.”
Green applications are also predicted to influence copper tubing demand, which ICA–commissioned research from the DMM Advisory Group expects to add nearly 1.6 Mt to copper demand from 2020 – 2040. Air source heat pumps should be a significant contributing factor, with the research anticipating sales of these pumps will quadruple by 2040, from 13 million units in 2020 to 52 million units in 2040. Krisztina Kalman-Schueler, Managing Partner at DMM Advisory Group, commented that “heat pumps are an example of a growing energy transition market, and are an energy efficient, low-carbon, low-cost heating solution.”
CRU anticipates that copper wire and cable will see a slight decrease in global market share from 2020 to 2040 due to copper substitution. The research finds that winding wire will decline from 88 to 86 percent of market share, with power cable decreasing from 64 to 59 percent and automotive low voltage electricity decreasing from 95 to 85 percent.
“While the research finds wire and cable copper are expected to lose around 3 percent of the market by 2040, copper is predicted to retain an 80 percent market share in the long term, and substitution will be offset by gains in total copper usage, primarily driven by growth in end-use applications and the green energy transition,” explained Colin Bennett, Director of Global Market Intelligence at ICA.
Panel discussion
To provide further insight on the ICA-commissioned research on copper’s future market share and substitution, ICA will be hosting a panel discussion on Tuesday 16 April 2024 as part of the CRU World Copper Conference 2024 in Santiago, Chile, during CESCO Week. The panel discussion will take place from 2:45 p.m. – 3:45 p.m. (CLT) at the W Santiago Hotel.
Senior Mining and Future Energy Correspondent at Reuters, Ernest Scheyder, will be moderating the panel. He will be joined by CRU Senior Consultant, Juan Brihet; DMM Advisory Group Managing Partner, Krisztina Kalman-Schueler; and Executive Vice President/Chief Supply Chain Officer of Southwire Co., Charlie Murrah.
The panel will provide an informative and engaging session from key sector experts to discuss the work commissioned by ICA’s Market Outreach Division, led by the Director of Global Market Intelligence, Colin Bennett. The panel will address the stabilization of copper substitution in 2022 and 2023, as well as the outlook on copper’s global market share.
The panel discussion will be followed by a Q&A where the panelists will be available to answer any questions on the topics discussed.
- Quotations attributed to Juan Brihet are based on ICA-commissioned research finalized in early 2024.
About the International Copper Association
The International Copper Association (ICA) brings together the global copper industry to promote, develop and defend markets for copper. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., ICA has offices in three primary regions: Asia, Europe and North America. ICA and its partners are active in more than 60 countries worldwide. For additional information, please visit www.internationalcopper.org.
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